Uncertainty in Scenarios of BIOdiversity

Durée : 2017 - 2019
Programme : Labex CeMEB
Portée : Internationale
Biodiversity scenarios
Ecosystem models
Uncertainty analyses
Global changes

Scenarios are invaluable tools to guide long term strategic policies, prompt management actions and increase public awareness on future threats to biodiversity. To increase scenarios impacts on policies and trigger appropriate management responses, IPBES has strongly encouraged to develop capacities inquantifying the uncertainty linked to future projections of biodiversity. By gathering a group of scientists
skilled in modelling and statistics, working in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, developing diverse scenarios of global changes, this project aims to develop a conceptual framework and methods to address uncertainty in biodiversity scenarios. Specific case studies in marine and terrestrial realms will allow to address different sources of uncertainty (parameter, structural, internal variability) and ultimately to formulate some generic guidelines that could be communicated to the broader scientific community.