Applying tree-grass interaction models to decipher forest-savanna dynamics in Central Africa

Forest extension over savannas is widely observed, notably over tropical Africa. Understanding forest extension is necessary to forecast its consequences for biodiversity, carbon stocks and livelihoods. We build here from a general model aiming at recovering, as dynamical outcomes of fire-mediated tree–grass interactions, the wide range of vegetation physiognomies observable in the savanna biome along rainfall gradients at regional/continental scales (Yatat et al., 2021 Ecol. Mod.). We refined the model parametrization of this model with respect to the context of forest-savanna mosaic landscapes in Central Cameroon. Versions adding spatial terms to this temporal model were also designed and qualitatively analyzed (Tega et al., 2022 AMM). Models results are compared to landscape dynamics observed from historical series of satellite images (Sagang et al., P&RS in press). Close form results approximating afforestation pace are proposed.