Impacts des perturbations sur la diversité végétale : apports des données plurimillénaires dans les prédictions futures

Understanding the impacts of fires and human activities on vegetation and biodiversity is crucial for managing ecosystems in the face of global changes. In this talk, I will present how historical insights gained through palaeoecological analyses, such as charcoal and pollen records, reveal a significant shift from climate-driven to human-influenced fire regimes in Europe since the Neolithic. Using examples from Mediterranean region and the Carpathians, I will discuss how moderate disturbances, including controlled fires and traditional grazing, have historically enhanced plant diversity by maintaining landscape heterogeneity. Finally, I will illustrate how integrating palaeoecological knowledge with ecological modelling tools, like LandClim and FlamMap, helps predict future wildfire risks under climate change and evolving land-use practices, contributing effectively to sustainable landscape and biodiversity management.